Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

087
AXNT20 KNHC 231641
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will develop
beginning late today as high pressure builds southward over the 
western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas
along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is 
expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force 
over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night 
through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these 
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to
avoid the affected areas. 
Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 
Heavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level
trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical
moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands this weekend and Mon. By mid-week, the trough is 
forecast to weaken and move eastward into the central Atlantic. 
Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life- 
threatening flash flooding. 
Please refer to your local weather services and the International
Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W 
to 12N30W. The ITCZ runs from 11N36W to near the Venezuela/Guyana 
border. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N 
between 20W and 31W, and from 06N to 10N between 31W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over 
the Gulf waters, supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh NE 
to E winds with slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted over the Straits of Florida, and near the 
NE of the Yucatan Peninsula. Low clouds are banked up against the 
Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. 
For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the 
above mentioned high pressure and low pressure forecast to 
develop near the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE 
winds and rough to very rough seas over the eastern Gulf, 
including the Florida Straits, tonight through early next week. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.
An upper-level trough over NW Caribbean is triggering scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and
NW Caribbean, including the Cayman Islands and regional waters as
well as Jamaica, and just south of Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds over the
eastern Caribbean, and moderate N to NE winds over the NW Caribbean
with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and 
slight to moderate seas prevail. 
For the forecast, an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of 
America and NW Caribbean will support scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and 
Windward Passage through Sun. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the 
central and western Caribbean will support light winds and slight 
to moderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E 
to SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Looking ahead, expect 
fresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building 
seas west of 80W early next week as high pressure builds north of 
the area. Expect rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan 
Channel Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain
event over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are near a 1012 mb low pressure
located just E of the Bahamas at 25N73W. This convective activity
now covers most of the waters from 20N to 30N between 65W and 
76W. A surface trough extends from the low center northeastward to
beyond 31N56W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of 
the trough axis, mainly N of 25N. A few showers and thunderstorms
are near SE Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted N of 
25N and W of 72W between the low pressure center and high pressure
over eastern United States. Fresh to strong southerly winds are 
observed per satellite derived wind data N of 27N between 42W and 
51W due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a
trough situated N of 27N and near 50W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with
these winds. Farther south, a surface trough is analyzed and extends
from 19N31W to 10N32W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
follow the trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure located NE of 
the Azores dominates the remainder of the forecast region supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds with moderate seas. Large
northerly swell continues to propagate mainly across the waters W
of 70W with seas of up to 9 ft. 
For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue
to propagate across the forecast waters mainly W of 65W and NE of
the Bahamas today then gradually subside tonight through Sat. A 
tightening pressure gradient will develop across the northwestern 
zones beginning late today as high pressure builds southward over 
the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the central 
Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup 
is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and
rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force 
over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night 
through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these 
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to
avoid the affected areas.