Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
002 AXPZ20 KNHC 230911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Vance is centered near 10.9N 102.1W at 23/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Seas are peaking near 27 ft or 8.0 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the E semicircle, and 150 nm in the W semicircle. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 480 nm in the E semicircle, and 210 nm in the W semicircle. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Rapid intensification will continue during the next 24 hours, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and recently upgraded Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force through early this morning, and again tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia at 10N75W to 08N91W to SE of Hurricane Vance at 09N98W. The ITCZ extends from SW of Vance at 08N110W to 02N140W. Other than the convection associated with Vance above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 80W and 86W, and from 00N to 07N between 124W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on recently upgraded Hurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the northern Gulf of California due to a passing cold front over far NW mainland Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California from near Punta Eugenia southward and to the W of 110W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California, except to moderate in the northern Gulf. Seas are moderate elsewhere away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and seas associated with Vance. For the forecast, Vance will move to 11.5N 102.5W this afternoon, 12.4N 103.0W Sat morning, 13.4N 103.4W Sat afternoon, 14.5N 103.8W Sun morning, 15.6N 104.0W Sun afternoon, and 16.4N 104.4W Mon morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.0N 104.6W early Tue. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to gale force through early morning and again tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies with a tight pressure gradient over the region. Fresh winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish later today. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California Sur will pulse and expand to across the Baja California waters through tonight before diminishing, locally strong from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia today. Rough seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will spread across those waters tonight through Sat. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except slight in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, locally rough offshore southern Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Seas will build to rough in southerly swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands today through early Sat as winds freshen there. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on recently upgraded Hurricane Vance. Elsewhere, a stationary front that had extended from Baja California just S of Punta Eugenia to the open central waters has dissipated. Even so, remnant moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds 7-9 ft seas in northerly swells are from 10N to 25N to the W of 119W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas away from Vance. For the forecast, Vance will move to 11.5N 102.5W this afternoon, 12.4N 103.0W Sat morning, 13.4N 103.4W Sat afternoon, 14.5N 103.8W Sun morning, 15.6N 104.0W Sun afternoon, and 16.4N 104.4W Mon morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.0N 104.6W early Tue. Meanwhile, remnant fresh winds and rough seas over the W-central waters will diminish and subside through the evening. Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the N-central waters Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters may send rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week. Combined seas may build to rough over the S-central waters early next week.