Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
453 AXNT20 KNHC 230337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level trough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, while deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the southern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact with the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining moisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the next several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore flow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, where heavy precipitation is expected through Sunday. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur across all other aforementioned areas on Sat and Sun. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07N12W and extends to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 08N27W. It resumes from 08N33W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 16W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the eastern of the United States supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf region. Slight to moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, Fri night through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough over NW Caribbean supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage. A weak pressure gradient over the area is generating moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, over the basin. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will prevail through Sat. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the central and western Caribbean will support light winds and slight to moderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Fresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W are expected by early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 mb low is centered to the northe of the area, with a trough extending from the low to 24N53W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are east of the trough between 44W and 51W. Large northerly swell generated from Post- Tropical Josephine north of the area is generating rough seas N of 25N and W of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas prevail as surface ridging dominates the area. For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue to propagate across the forecast region W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas.