Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

033
WTPZ22 KNHC 230237
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 105SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 101.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.9N 102.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.7N 102.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.6N 103.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.7N 103.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 104.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 104.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  70SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 101.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z