Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
542 AXNT20 KNHC 222114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level trough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, while deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the southern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact with the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining moisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the next several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore flow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, where heavy precipitation is expected from tonight through Sunday. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur across all other aforementioned areas on Saturday and Sunday. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07N12W and extends to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 08N27W. It resumes from 08N33W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 16W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas prevail S of 20N and W of 95.5W. Elsewhere, Moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf region will diminish by tonight. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf by late Sat through early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are also expected in the Straits of Florida, particularly Sunday night into Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient over the area is generating moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, over the Caribbean waters. For the forecast, a broad trough will persist over the central Caribbean through at least Sun. The Atlantic high pressure will extends a ridge over the eastern Caribbean while high pressure over the eastern of the United States will strengthen. Under this weather pattern, the forecast calls for light winds and slight to moderate seas over the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin, and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds with mainly moderate seas over the NW Caribbean through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 10011 mb low is centered near 31N52W, with a trough extending from the low to near 26N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are east of the trough between 45W and 52W. Large northerly swell generated from Post-Tropical Josephine north of the area is generating rough seas N of 25N and W of 70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue to propagate across the forecast region mainly W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas tonight and Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sun and Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas.