Tropical Cyclone Discussion
368 WTNT45 KNHC 222038 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 The convective cloud pattern of Josephine now resembles that of a warm frontal band, with little evidence of tropical-cyclone like curvature. In addition, the circulation center is becoming elongated and cold-air clouds are increasing in the southern semicircle. Based on these developments and the earlier scatterometer pass showing a developing frontal boundary, Josephine has become an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt, and this could be conservative. The initial motion is now faster toward the northeast or 055/15 kt. Josephine should move generally northeastward with some increase in forward speed tonight, followed by an eastward turn as it becomes well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine will move away from the New England states this evening and pass south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight and Saturday. The guidance is again tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Josephine is expected to strengthen as an extratropical low tonight due to the influence of an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the New England states, with winds reaching hurricane force. After tonight the global dynamical models are in good agreement that the cyclone should steadily weaken, and they forecast Josephine to dissipate by 72 h as it is absorbed by a new low pressure area developing to its northeast. The new intensity forecast is based mainly on the global models and again has only minor adjustments from the last forecast. The wind radii forecasts have also been revised based on the global model forecasts. This will be the last advisory on Josephine issued by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Please also see products from local National Weather Service offices and Environment Canada for more information regarding the effects of Josephine in coastal areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 40.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/0600Z 41.3N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/1800Z 42.9N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0600Z 43.5N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 43.8N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 43.6N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED