Tropical Cyclone Discussion

347
WTPZ42 KNHC 222037
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 PM CST Thu Oct 22 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Vance continues to become better 
organized and is strengthening.  The storm has numerous convective 
bands, especially over its southern semicircle, and a small 
developing Central Dense Overcast.  Upper-level outflow is becoming 
well defined over all quadrants of the circulation.  The advisory 
intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB.  This is also close to a blend of the 
various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The center appears to be moving west-northwestward with a motion 
estimate of 300/4 kt.  Vance is currently south of a mid-level high 
pressure area over western Mexico.  Over the next few days, this 
ridge is forecast to weaken as a trough moves into the southwestern 
United States.  As a result the tropical cyclone should turn toward 
the northwest and north-northwest over the next 72 hours.  Late in 
the forecast period, the trough moves eastward and leaves Vance in 
a region of weak steering currents.  The official forecast track is 
nudged a little east of the previous one and is generally a blend 
of the Google DeepMind ensemble and the NOAA corrected consensus, 
HCCA, solution.

Vance is in an environment that is generally conductive for 
significant intensification during the next couple of days, with low 
vertical wind shear, high oceanic heat content and plenty of 
mid-level moisture.  The NHC intensity forecast remains about the 
same as in previous advisories and near the high end of the model 
guidance suite.  However it should be noted that the track of the 
cyclone could eventually take it over waters that have been cooled 
by the passage of recent tropical cyclones.  This, along with some 
increase in vertical shear later in the forecast period, could 
limit strengthening.  So, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in 
the future intensity of Vance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 10.0N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 10.3N 101.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 10.9N 102.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 11.6N 102.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 12.6N 103.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 13.8N 103.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 15.0N 103.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W   85 KT 100 MPH