Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

301
WTPZ22 KNHC 222035
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.3N 101.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.6N 102.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.6N 103.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.8N 103.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.0N 103.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 101.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z