Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
999 AXNT20 KNHC 221722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level trough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, while deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the southern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact with the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining moisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the next several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore flow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, where heavy precipitation is expected from tonight through Sunday. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur across all other aforementioned areas on Saturday and Sunday. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Libera near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W and then northwestward to 09N27W. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N24W to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 10N between 10W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough parallels the western Gulf coast from near South Padre Island, TX into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen S of 21N and W of 91W. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley supports moderate to fresh NE winds and 2-5 ft seas across much of the Gulf, with locally strong NW winds offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern United States supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf by late Sat through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over the central Caribbean S of Hispaniola. Isolated moderate convection is also occurring S of 11N and W of 77W, enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean. To the NW, a surface trough extending from eastern Cuba to central Belize is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong trades prevail in the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail in the eastern and far NW Caribbean N of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide. For the forecast, a broad trough over the central and western Caribbean will support light winds and slight to moderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough reaches from SE of Bermuda to the Windward Passage. Farther north, Subtropical Storm Josephine is off New Jersey. N swell of 8 to 12 ft generated by Josephine is moving into the region as far south as 25N west of 70W. A recent altimeter pass confirmed wave heights of 12-14 ft occurring N of 29N. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active north of 21N and west of 45W, mainly near the trough and another trough reaching from 31N55W to 24N50W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 6-8 ft seas are ongoing E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, large N swell, generated by Subtropical Storm Josephine centered off the NE of the United States, is moving into the region north of 27N and west of 65W this morning. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters north of 28N between 60W and 75W on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.