Tropical Cyclone Discussion

318
WTPZ42 KNHC 221448
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Vance is becoming better 
organized.  A central dense overcast has formed near the center, 
with apparently a low-level center re-formation to the east 
based on the latest microwave data. Objective and subjective 
Dvorak estimates are rising, and the latest estimates are between 
44-53 kt.  The initial intensity is set to 50 kt as a blend of the 
data.  

With the center re-formation, the initial motion is uncertain but 
is estimated to be northwest at about 3 kt.  There has been a 
substantial change in the guidance overnight, with the models 
showing a mid-level ridge over Mexico weakening faster than 
yesterday.  This pattern would allow the storm to move more to the 
northwest or north-northwest during the next several days.  The new 
forecast is shifted well to the northeast, near a blend of the 
latest GFS/ECMWF models. I will note that the Google DeepMind and 
HCCA aids are over a degree east of my new forecast by 96h, but 
continuity precludes a larger change at this time.  
 
The environment appears generally conducive for steady-to-rapid 
intensification during the next couple of days, with low shear, warm 
waters and plenty of mid-level moisture.  The forecast is about the 
same as the last one through 48 hours.  However, the new eastward 
track shift would bring Vance over the cold wake left by the gaggle 
of eastern Pacific hurricanes south of Mexico during the past few 
weeks, which could limit strengthening beyond 2 days.  Additionally, 
vertical wind shear is expected to increase early next week.    
Thus, the timing of the peak intensity has been adjusted to 
Saturday, and the long-range intensities have been reduced.  If 
farther east track shifts are required, the intensity forecast 
would likely have to be reduced as well for early next week since 
it would more squarely more over the cold wakes left behind the 
earlier hurricanes.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z  9.7N 101.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 10.1N 101.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 10.7N 102.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 11.5N 102.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 12.3N 103.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 13.4N 103.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 14.4N 103.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 17.0N 104.7W   85 KT 100 MPH