Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

307
WTPZ22 KNHC 221446
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 101.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 101.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 100.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.1N 101.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.5N 102.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.3N 103.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.4N 103.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.4N 103.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.7N 101.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z