Tropical Cyclone Discussion
980 WTNT45 KNHC 221436 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that an area of convection has developed to the north of the center of Josephine, although the convective curvature is less than it was last night. Just- received scatterometer data suggests the convective cluster is near or just west of a developing frontal boundary. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the previous advisory, and the scatterometer shows winds near 50 kt west of the center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on a subtropical cyclone intensity estimate from TAFB and the possibility of the scatterometer undersampling the maximum wind. The initial motion is northeastward or 040/10 kt. GOES RGB airmass imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada southwestward into the northeastern US, and Josephine should accelerate northeastward during the next 12-24 h as this trough amplifies and approaches the cyclone. After 24 h or so, Josephine should turn more eastward as it becomes embedded in the mid- latitude westerlies. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine will move away from the New England states today and pass south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight and Saturday. The guidance is again tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. The interaction between Josephine and the aforementioned trough should cause the cyclone to develop fronts and become extratropical during the next 12 h, and the scatterometer data suggests this process is already underway. However, intensification is expected during this transition and Josephine will become a hurricane-force extratropical low later tonight and on Friday. The dynamical models are in good agreement that the cyclone should steadily weaken after 24 h, and they forecast Josephine to dissipate between 72 and 96 h as it is absorbed by a new low pressure area developing to its northeast. The new intensity forecast is based mainly on the global physical models and it has only minor adjustments from the last forecast. The wind radii forecasts have also been revised based on the global model forecasts. Since the coastal wind hazards associated with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, those products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and Josephine moves farther away from the U.S. coast over the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.2N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 40.5N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/1200Z 42.3N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0000Z 43.4N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1200Z 43.7N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z 43.9N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1200Z 43.6N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED