Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

006
AXPZ20 KNHC 220925
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.7N 101.5W at 22/0900
UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Peak seas of 14 ft are expected within 60 nm in the north 
semicircle of the system. Rapid intensification is expected 
during the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to 
become a major hurricane by Saturday. Swells generated by Vance 
are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next 
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office for details.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
T.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over Mexico and T.S. Vance is supporting near- 
gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are pulsing to 
gale-force through this morning, and will occur again tonight 
across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N96W. It resumes 
west of T.S. Vance near 06N104W to 04N115W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N115W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 11N between 94W and 97W, and from 00N to 13N and W 
of 121W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Tropical Storm Vance and the Gale warning in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to 
gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas 
in the Gulf of California. 
For the forecast, T.S. Vance will move to 10.0N 102.1W this 
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.5N 102.8W Fri 
morning, 11.1N 103.4W Fri afternoon, 11.8N 103.9W Sat morning, 
12.7N 104.3W Sat afternoon, and 13.8N 104.7W Sun morning. Vance 
will change little in intensity as it moves to 15.5N 105.2W by 
early Mon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over 
Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap 
winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by 
rough seas. Winds are pulsing to gale-force through this morning,
and will occur again tonight across the Tehuantepec region as 
Vance further intensifies. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the
discussion waters.
For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo
region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features section above for information on newly 
named T.S. Vance.
Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low pressure area is centered near 35N122W,
with associated weakening cold front extending from 30N117W to 
27N118W, then trough from that point to new. Fresh NW winds and 
rough seas with maximum wave heights to 11 ft follow the 
front/trough. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix
of swell are noted elsewhere. 
For the forecast, the front/trough will dissipate today as it 
continues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing as 
they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of 
125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere. T.S. Vance will move to 10.0N 102.1W this afternoon, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 10.5N 102.8W Fri morning, 11.1N 
103.4W Fri afternoon, 11.8N 103.9W Sat morning, 12.7N 104.3W Sat 
afternoon, and 13.8N 104.7W Sun morning. Vance will change little
in intensity as it moves to 15.5N 105.2W by early Mon.