Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
669 AXNT20 KNHC 220910 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 08N25W. A surface trough is analyzed from 16N24W to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to 07N57W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 11N to 15N between 21W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends from southern Texas to the SW Gulf and the southern Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of 20N over the far southwest Gulf near this trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin allowing for generally dry conditions. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist across the basin, south of high pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft over the central and western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern of the United States supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the central Caribbean, and over the northwest Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds and 2-4 ft are noted over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas are in the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a broad trough over the central and western Caribbean will support light breezes and slight to moderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba. Farther north, Subtropical Storm Josephine is off New Jersey. While this is too far north to have any impact on winds over the discussion area south of 31N, N swell of 8 to 11 ft generated in part by Josephine is moving into the region as far south as 27N west of 75W. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active north of 20N and west of 45W, mainly near the trough and another trough reaching from 31N58W to 25N50W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 6-8 ft seas are ongoing within 90 nm east of this trough. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale- force over the waters north of 28N between 65W and 75W on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.