Tropical Cyclone Discussion
924 WTPZ42 KNHC 220848 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 Vance's shield of deep convection has expanded since the last advisory, with cloud-top temperatures about its center reading colder than -85 degrees C. While an ASCAT-C pass around 0430 UTC revealed max winds only around 30-35 kt, satellite imagery suggests that Vance has become increasingly organized over the last couple of hours. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity analysis from TAFB was at 2.5/35 kt, while objective analyses from UW-CIMSS ranged from about 34-49 kt. Given the system's improved presentation across satellite imagery, along with the upward trend in objective estimates, Vance's initial intensity was raised to 45 kt. The initial motion was estimated to be 275/6 kt. Vance continues to ride the southern flank of a mid-level ridge anchored over Mexico and the south-central US. As the ridge shifts eastward, Vance is expected to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days. By Day 3, however, forecast confidence decreases significantly, as the cyclone is expected to enter an environment characterized by weak steering flow, resulting in a wide spread of solutions across track guidance. The latest NHC track forecast reflects only a slight shift leftward from the previous advisory, which closely follows GDMI and HCCA guidance. SHIPS guidance continues to depict an environment favorable for strengthening ahead of Vance, characterized by warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and ample mid-level moisture. Probabilities for Rapid Intensification have backed off slightly based on the latest SHIPS run, however, Vance is still anticipated to become a major hurricane by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, a gradual weakening trend is forecast as the cyclone encounters increasing vertical wind shear and less favorable outflow. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory, and generally falls within the upper-end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 9.7N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.0N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 10.5N 102.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 11.1N 103.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 11.8N 103.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 12.7N 104.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 13.8N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 15.5N 105.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 16.8N 105.5W 90 KT 105 MPH