Tropical Cyclone Discussion
923 WTNT45 KNHC 220848 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that some renewed convection has developed over the northern and western portions of Josephine's circulation during the past several hours. An earlier Metop-C scatterometer pass revealed a large and asymmetric wind field, with a band of 45-50 kt winds wrapping around the western side of the circulation and a radius of maximum winds near 60 n mi. Based on these data and steady trends in the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Josephine has turned toward the northeast and accelerated since the previous advisory, with the initial motion now estimated at 040/11 kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating northeastward and then east-northeastward today as a potent upper-level trough digs southeastward from Quebec toward the Canadian Maritimes and the northeastern United States. This trough is forecast to amplify and eventually close off over the northern Atlantic by early Friday. As Josephine becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the system should turn eastward on Friday and continue moving eastward through the weekend, passing well south of Newfoundland. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, with a slight leftward adjustment, reflecting a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Josephine is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics later today or by tonight as it moves over cooler waters and interacts with the approaching upper-level trough. However, some additional strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h due to baroclinic processes and a positive interaction with the advancing trough as the cyclone accelerates northeastward. The NHC forecast continues to show Josephine becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone within 24 h. Gradual weakening is expected thereafter as the system moves eastward across the North Atlantic. Global model guidance indicates that Josephine should eventually open into a trough as it becomes absorbed into a larger mid-latitude system, with dissipation expected by day 4. Given Josephine's expected extratropical transition, the NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Since the coastal wind hazards associated with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, those products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and Josephine moves farther away from the U.S. coast over the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 38.7N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 12H 22/1800Z 39.8N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 24H 23/0600Z 41.5N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1800Z 43.2N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z 43.9N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1800Z 44.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 43.8N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED