Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

902
WTPZ22 KNHC 220846
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 101.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 101.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.6N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.0N 102.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.5N 102.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.1N 103.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.8N 103.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.7N 104.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.8N 104.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 15.5N 105.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N 105.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.7N 101.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z