Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
583 AXNT20 KNHC 220355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. A surface trough is analyzed from 14N23W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 08N53W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 05N to 15N and east of 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends from southern Texas to the SW Gulf and the southern Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm on either side of this boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin allowing for generally dry conditions. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft are evident off Veracruz, south of 21N and west of 95W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 or 13 ft with these winds over the eastern Gulf on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW and SW Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and the Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same time, strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the same low pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds over the western part of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the central Caribbean. These marine conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 31N69W to a 1011 mb low near 25N70W and then to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Another surface trough is noted south of Bermuda. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 22N and between 62W and 72W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and rough seas are found behind the westernmost trough, especially north of 25N. A similar weather pattern is present in the central Atlantic, where a surface trough extends southeastward from a 1012 mb low near 31N58W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found north of 21N and between 41W and 55W. A moderate pressure gradient between this surface trough and a broad ridge over the NE Atlantic sustains fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the area described. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned broad ridge, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. An exception is evident off NE South America where wind speeds reach fresh force. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and NE swell persist west of a trough that extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along the trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.