Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

877
AXPZ20 KNHC 220319
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.6N 100.7W at
22/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind 
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas of 14 ft are 
expected within 30 nm in the north semicircle of the system. 
Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is 
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Swells generated by 
Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into 
next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from 
your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
T.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over Mexico and T.S. Vance is supporting near- 
gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are pulsing to 
gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu night across the
Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N94W. It resumes 
west of T.S. Vance near 06N105W to 05N110W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05N110W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 00N to 08N east of 94W, and scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 00N to 14N and W of 118W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Tropical Storm Vance and the Gale warning in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to 
gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas 
in the Gulf of California. 
For the forecast, T.S. Vance will move to 9.8N 101.2W Thu 
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 102.1W Thu evening,
10.9N 102.9W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.5W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.9W
Sat morning, and 13.5N 104.1W Sat evening. Vance will change 
little in intensity as it moves to 15.4N 105.0W by late Sun. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and T.S. 
Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds 
are pulsing to gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu 
night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the
discussion waters.
For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo
region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features section above for information on newly 
named TS Vance.
Elsewhere, a 1006 mb low pressure area is centered near 35N122W,
with associated weakening cold front extending from 30N118W to 
21N139W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas with maximum 
wave heights to 12 ft follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. 
For the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as 
it continues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing 
as they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of
125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere. T.S. Vance will move to 9.8N 101.2W Thu morning, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 102.1W Thu evening, 10.9N 
102.9W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.5W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.9W Sat 
morning, and 13.5N 104.1W Sat evening. Vance will change little 
in intensity as it moves to 15.4N 105.0W by late Sun. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance 
is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling into 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are 
pulsing to gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu night 
across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies.