Tropical Cyclone Discussion
457 WTPZ42 KNHC 212033 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 Satellite imagery shows that the system continues to produce deep convection in improved banding features, as depicted in recent microwave images. An earlier scatterometer pass shortly after the previous advisory showed that the low-level center was slightly farther south and had a peak wind of 27 kt. The latest satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB are 32-35 kt, and using these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory, making the system Tropical Storm Vance. The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow forward motion is expected with a turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. There continues to be some disagreement in the short term over when the turn toward the northwest will occur The GFS and hurricane regional models continue to show a southwest motion, while the HCCA and GDMI show the system slowing and turning sooner. The latest NHC track forecast is closest to the HCCA and GDMI, the best-performing models this season, and was shifted slightly to the right compared to the previous one. Vance is within a conducive environment for steady to rapid intensification (RI), with warm sea surface temperatures near 29-30C, low wind shear, and favorable upper-level divergence. RI SHIPS and DTOPS guidance remains very bullish, showing RI over the next 12-60 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and the peak intensity was increased slightly from the previous one, although it remains slightly below the GDMI and HCCA aids. In 72 hours, wind shear is forecast to increase and the system will move into a slightly drier mid-level air mass. Thus, a weakening trend is shown at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.4N 99.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 9.5N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 9.8N 101.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH