Tropical Cyclone Discussion

479
WTPZ42 KNHC 211437
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of 
southern Mexico (EP94) has continued to become better organized this 
morning. Deep convection has increased, and showers and 
thunderstorms have become more concentrated within curved banding 
features. A subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB 
was T2.0/ 30 kt. Visible satellite shows that the low-level 
circulation center is now well-defined, and advisories are therefore 
being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E. The initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow 
forward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and 
then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern 
and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The 
NHC track forecast leans towards the GDMI and HCCA solutions and is 
on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS and some of 
the hurricane regional models continue to move the system more 
southwestward over the next 12 hours or so and are on the western 
portion of the track suite. 

Environmental conditions are highly conducive for rapid 
intensification. The cyclone is located over very warm waters in the 
eastern Pacific within an environment of low vertical wind shear, 
abundant mid-level moisture, and divergence aloft. Rapid 
intensification guidance is also well above climatological mean, 
particularly in the 12-60 h period. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS 
RI probabilities for a 55-kt increase in 48 hours are 73 and 83 
percent, respectively. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly 
forecast during that time. By 72 hours, vertical wind shear is 
forecast to increase, and mid-level dry air could begin to entrain 
into the circulation. As a result, a weakening trend is shown later 
in the forecast period. The official NHC intensity forecast is near 
the upper end of the guidance, although the Google DeepMind does 
show a higher peak intensity.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z  9.5N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z  9.4N 100.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z  9.7N 101.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH