Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
363 AXPZ20 KNHC 210842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): A 1007 mb low- pressure system located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10N98W is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for today into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over Mexico will support pulses of gale-force gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and again Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 1007 mb low pressure (Invest EP94) near 10N98W, then onward to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 05N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 95W and 105W, and from 05N to 08N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the developing low pressure over southern mexico and the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of areas off southern Mexico impacted by the developing low pressure and the pulsing gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist through Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas well offshore Guatemala deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decay tonight. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning issued in association with a low pressure system that has a potential for tropical development. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb occluded low pressure area is centered near 31N130W, with an associated cold front extending from 30N123W to 25N130W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas with maximum wave heights to 16 ft follow the front. Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms along with strong to near- gale force winds and seas to 11 ft are likely within 90 nm of the developing low pressure near 10N98W (Invest EP94), south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate waves in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as it continues to moves westward, with following winds and seas diminishing as they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of 125W. Marine conditions will deteriorate off southern Mexico through Sun as Invest EP94 continues to develop. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.