Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
048 AXNT20 KNHC 210340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 07N50W. No significant convection is noted near these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while drier conditions are prevalent elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area is forcing strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, while moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the basin through the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through Wed. The high combined with low pressure that is expected to develop near the Bahamas will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers are noted in the lee of Cuba, over Hispaniola and off Colombia. High pressure north of the area and a nearby frontal boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish to moderate speeds by Wed as high pressure north of the basin weakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers are occurring near this boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 27N58W along an NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level trough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough. Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and between 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, in the far NE Atlantic, a weak surface low near 26N22W supports scattered showers north of 22N and east of 25W, affecting portions of Western Sahara, Morocco and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale- force NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N51W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba, including the Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.