Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
670 AXPZ20 KNHC 210316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in these waters are rough. Fresh to strong winds will persist into Thu, then increase to gales again Thu night into Fri night. Gale Warning South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 1007 mb low pressure (EP94) near 10N97W, then onward to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 05N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 95W and 105W, and from 05N to 08N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, 1007 mb low pressure, the remnant of Simon, is centered between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands near 19N108W. is leading to moderate NW winds across Socorro Island. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure settled over Mexico is funneling northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish to strong by Wed, but will increase to gales again Thu night into Sat. A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas well offshore Guatemala deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decay tonight. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning issued in association with a low pressure system that has a potential for tropical development. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds and rough seas are increasing behind a cold front that extends from 30N124W to 25N130W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, as the cold front moves to the southeast tonight, fresh to strong winds and very rough seas will impact waters north of 25N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours.