Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
428 AXNT20 KNHC 202219 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southward to 08N18W and then westward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N27W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 12N and east of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection is noted over much of the southwest basin in association with a pair of surface troughs, one of which extends north-to south from offshore the upper Texas coast to the western Bay of Campeche and another that extends westward from the northern Yucatan to near 21N92W. Strong NW winds continue offshore Veracruz, where seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, 1028 mb high pressure centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley is supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas across the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support fresh to NE winds are across the basin through the latter part of the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through Wed. Looking ahead, strengthening high pressure over the eastern U.S. in combination with low pressure that is expected to develop near the Bahamas will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to around 12 ft with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extending across the Caribbean and the East Pacific monsoon trough analyzed across the far SW Caribbean support scattered moderate to strong convection S of 13N and W of 75W. Outside of convection, a weaker pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate or weaker winds and subsequent slight seas across much of the Caribbean, except for the south-central basin offshore Colombia and Venezuela where moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish to moderate speeds by late Wed as high pressure north of the basin weakens some. The pressure gradient in place will then allow for mostly gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas across the basin through Wed night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean by Thu, and fresh winds across the far northwestern Caribbean starting late Sat as stronger high pressure builds again north of the area. These trades diminish to moderate speeds Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is stalling from near Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos to eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the front. Moderate to fresh N winds and rough seas are noted N of the boundary. A broad upper-level low near 25N54W and associated surface trough to the west is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms N of 20N between 43W and 60W. Fresh SE winds and moderate seas are to the east of the trough, extending to 35W. Farther east, scattered moderate convection is noted along a surface trough that extends from the Canary Islands to 25N25W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish tonight into Wed as the frontal boundary begins to weaken. Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. Looking ahead, a tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as strengthening high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N51W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba, including the Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.