Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
362 AXNT20 KNHC 201632 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southward to 08N18W and then westward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N27W to 10N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 12N and east of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and tstms persist this morning over the southwest Gulf and off the Yucatan Peninsula, along a trough analyzed along 94W in the W Gulf and another trough extending across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Strong NW winds continue offshore Veracruz, where seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, 1029 mb high pressure centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley is supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas across the Gulf, except for the far SE Gulf and Florida Straits where fresh to strong NE winds persist. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this morning over the southwest Gulf and off the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure over the eastern U.S. will support fresh to NE winds are across the basin through the latter part of the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through Wed. Looking ahead, strengthening high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extending across the Caribbean and the East Pacific monsoon trough analyzed across the far SW Caribbean support scattered moderate to strong convection S of 13N and W of 75W. Outside of convection, a weaker pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate or weaker winds and subsequent slight seas across much of the Caribbean, except for the south-central basin offshore Colombia and Venezeula where moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the far northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through early this afternoon. These winds will diminish Wed as the high pressure weakens, leaving gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas across the basin. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean by Thu, and fresh winds across the far northwestern Caribbean starting late Sat as high pressure builds again north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from SW of Bermuda near 31N67W to the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along much of the cold front. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are W of the front to the SE US coast, with locally strong NE winds occurring along the south Florida coast and the Florida Straits. Rough seas prevail N of the Bahamas and W of 70W, with very rough seas of 13-15 ft occurring N of 28N between 71W and 80W. A broad upper-level low near 25N54W is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 31N and between 43W and 60W. A surface trough reaches from 28N50W to 1012 mb low pressure near 26N56W to 23N58W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh and locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 26N and between 35W and 55W. Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a weak surface trough extends from the Canary Islands to 1015 mb low pressure near 27N21W to 24N25W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell persist west of a cold front that extends from 31N67W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish tonight into Wed as the front dissipates, and lingering swell will subside through Thu. Looking ahead, a tightening pressure gradient developing late Fri is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds over the waters north of about 25N well into the weekend. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.