Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
312 AXPZ20 KNHC 200328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Trudy is centered near 19.5N 108.0W at 20/0300 UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. The system is drifting northward, but is expected to move slowly to the west-northwest over the next day or so until dissipation. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the last NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient in the area continues to force gale-force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are rough to very rough. These conditions will continue into Tue night. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are likely to increase to gales again Thu night and Fri. South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1009 mb low near 10.5N94W to 04N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N107W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N E of 104W and from 01N to 08N and W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere outside from Trudy and the T'pec gale area, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle NW winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Trudy will become a remnant low and move to 19.3N 108.6W Tue morning, 19.4N 109.2W Tue evening, 19.6N 109.9W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are forecast to increase to gale-force again Thu night through Fri. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue well offshore Guatemala into Wed. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region, with locally strong pulses possible late this week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are impacting waters N of the ITCZ and W of 128W. Fresh to strong winds originating from a gale-force gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters as far south as 06N between 94W and 100W, along with rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds with continue to bring periods of fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W into mid-week. A cold front will move S of 30N tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds and very rough seas to waters N of 26N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days.