Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
992 AXNT20 KNHC 192238 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant N Swell: A 1004 mb low near 34N71W extends southwestward to the southeast Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm SE of the front. NW of the front, fresh to locally strong N winds prevail, but very rough seas generated by previously higher winds and ongoing gales closer to the aforementioned low center are impacting waters N of 26N and W of 70W. Seas as high as 16 ft are along 31N. These seas will only gradually decay tonight, and remain above 12 ft into Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W to near 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 08N34W to 12N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 09N between 20W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from northern Cuba across the southern Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and within 90 nm on both sides of the boundary. Much of the basin N of the front is seeing fresh to strong E to NE winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail, with winds near gale force and seas of 8-12 ft occurring in the far SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken through Tue as high pressure builds southward across the area. Marine conditions will be relatively calm over the region through the period, with the exception of the eastern Gulf beginning on Fri, at which time a tightening pressure gradient is expected to bring fresh to near gale-force NE winds and building seas over that part of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The East Pacific monsoon trough extending across the far SW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection S of 16N and W of 77W. Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean through Wed night and moderate, or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel tonight into Tue, where it will remain through Wed before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the northwestern Caribbean through early Wed morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean on Thu, and prevail through Sat night as surface ridging builds N of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on significant north swell behind a cold front in the western Atlantic. An upper level low near 24N51W is inducing several surface troughs in the Atlantic from 08N to 31N between 40W and 55W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is occurring from 14N to 29N between 40W and 50W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms W of this area out to 55W. A large swath of fresh to locally strong winds in broad counterclockwise flow as well as 6-10 ft seas are occurring N of 24N between 40W and 60W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N69W to 26N72W and becomes stationary to across the central Bahamas and to along the north-central coast of Cuba, continuing into the south-central Gulf and to the eastern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of America. NW to N fresh to strong winds are NW of the front N of 30N between 69W and 73W along with very rough seas while mostly fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere behind the front along with rough to very rough seas N and NE of the Bahamas. The cold front will reach from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by late tonight, where it will weaken before it dissipates into Wed. Seas N and NE of the Bahamas will slowly subside through the end of the week, however a tightening pressure gradient developing late Fri is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds over the waters N of about 25N well into the weekend. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.