Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
020 AXPZ20 KNHC 192121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Trudy is centered near 19.3N 107.9W at 19/2100 UTC, drifting northward. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center. A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest Tue. Weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Trudy is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by early Tuesday. Swells generated by Trudy will continue affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico into tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1023 mb high pressure centered over NE Mexico continues to force gale-force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are very rough. These conditions will continue into Tue night. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are likely to increase to gales again Thu night and Fri. South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at around 5 to 10 kt, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N109W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 16N E of 104W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 01N to 04N between 132W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle NW winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Trudy is near 19.3N 107.9W at 2 PM PDT, drifting northward. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Trudy will weaken to a tropical depression near 19.4N 108.3W Tue morning, then become post-tropical and move to 19.5N 108.9W Tue afternoon. Trudy will be near 19.8N 109.3W Wed morning, just northeast of the Revillagigedo Islands Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are likely to increase to gale-force again Thu night and Fri. Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at around 5 to 10 kt, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue well offshore Guatemala into Wed. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region, with locally strong pulses possible late this week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are impacting waters N of the ITCZ and W of 128W. Fresh to locally strong winds originating from a gale-force gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters as far south as 06N between 94W and 100W, along with rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds with continue to bring periods of fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W into mid-week. A cold front will move S of 30N tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds and very rough seas to waters N of 26N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at around 5 to 10 kt, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days.