Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

693
AXNT20 KNHC 191720
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Significant N Swell: A 1007 mb low near 33N72W extends a
cold front SE of the low and then southwestward through the
central Bahamas to northern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring along and roughly 50 nm E and SE of the front. Winds
behind the front have fallen below gale-force, but strong to
near gale-force NW winds persist. Very rough seas of 12-20 ft in N
to NE swell are occurring across the waters N of 26N and W of 
70W. These very rough seas will gradually expand southward to 25N 
and W of 70W through this afternoon and evening. Very rough seas 
will then steadily diminish through Tuesday afternoon and evening,
but rough seas of 8-12 ft will persist through midweek.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of
Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends to near 10N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N20W to 08N35W to 11N44W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 05N to 10N and E of 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from northern Cuba across the southern
Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring along and within 50 nm of the front. Much of the
basin N of the front is seeing fresh to strong E to NE winds and
6-8 ft seas prevail, with winds near gale force and seas of 8-12
ft occurring in the far SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Moderate to
fresh E winds and moderate seas are occurring S of the front
closer to the Yucatan Channel. 
For the forecast, a stationary front extends across the Straits 
of Florida to 23N90W into the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh to 
strong NW to N winds and rough seas are over the western Gulf S of
about 25N, except for near gale-force NW to N winds over the SW 
Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue 
over the eastern Gulf through Tue. The near gale-force NW to N 
winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz will diminish to mostly 
strong speeds this afternoon. The front will slow down over the 
Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula today, then shift 
southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level inverted trough over the western Caribbean and the
East Pacific monsoon trough extending across the far SW Caribbean
are supporting scattered moderate to strong convection generally S
of 16N and W of 77W. In the NW Caribbean, showers and
thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the stationary front draped
across the southern Gulf of America, as well as along a surface
trough in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere. 
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due 
to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of 
America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south- 
central Caribbean through Wed night and moderate, or weaker winds 
elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the 
Yucatan Channel tonight into Tue, where it will remain through Wed
before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to 
rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the 
northwestern Caribbean through early Wed morning. Otherwise, 
moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean 
on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging builds N 
of the area. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on
significant north swell behind a cold front in the western
Atlantic. 
An upper level low near 24N51W is inducing several surface troughs
in the Atlantic from 08N to 31N between 40W and 55W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 14N to 29N between 40W and
50W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms W of this area out
to 55W. A large swath of fresh to strong winds in broad 
counterclockwise flow as well as 6-10 ft seas are occurring N of 
24N between 40W and 60W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to
moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas prevail. 
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from a 1007 mb
low pressure located N of the forecast area near 33N71W 
southwestward SW to along the coast of Cuba near 23N81W, where it 
stalls to the eastern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of America. NW 
to N winds to near gale-force are NW of the front N of 30N between
71W and 73W along with very rough seas while fresh to strong N to
NE winds are elsewhere behind the front along with rough to very 
rough seas. Winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to 
strong speeds this afternoon as the gradient slackens. The front 
will reach from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by tonight, where
it will weaken before it dissipates into Wed. Seas N and NE of 
the Bahamas will slowly subside through the end of the week.