Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
178 AXNT20 KNHC 191057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A stationary front extends across the southern Gulf, from western Cuba to near 22N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. A 1025 mb high pressure is over NE Mexico while 1034 mb high pressure is across the NE U.S. extending a ridge southward across the basin. The pressure gradient south of these highs is forcing gale-force NW to N winds and very rough seas of 12-15 ft across the SW waters of the Gulf, S of 20N between the front and the Mexican coastline, while fresh to locally strong E-NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail across most of the remainder of the basin N of the front and E of 94W. The front will remain generally stationary and weaken into Tue. Gale winds and very rough seas to 15 ft will prevail in the SW basin through sunrise, then slowly diminish through Tue night. Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned front transitions to a cold front over western Cuba to the northern Bahamas and connects to a 1009 mb low near 32N71W. West of the cold front, N-NE winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with gale-force and frequent gusts to 40 kt N of 29N and W of 71W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Very rough seas of 12 to 20 ft prevail across these waters. The low is expected to continue to lift northward today, which will slow the forward progress of the front. Winds west of the front are expected to gradually diminish today, with gales ending later this morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends about 60 nm to the southwest. The ITCZ extends from 09N21W to 07N38W to 11N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 20N between 37W and 60W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. Outside of the gales, fresh to strong E-NE winds prevail E of 94W while moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are W of 94W and N of 22N. Seas of 5 to 10 ft prevail across most of the basin, except in the western Bay of Campeche where gales are still ongoing. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front in the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue over the eastern Gulf through Tue. The front will slow down over the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula today, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through later this morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An invereted mid-level trough across the NW Caribbean continues to support numerous moderate isolated strong convection offshore Nicaragua and eastern Honduras while moderate convection is in the Yucatan Channel in association with a frontal boundary across the southern Gulf of America. A weak pressure gradient across the region is yielding only moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft seas across the central Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and 78W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean through Wed night and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel tonight into Tue where it will remain through Wed before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean through early Wed morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging builds N of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on gales ongoing southwest of Bermuda behind a cold front moving through western Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located N of the forecast area near 32N71W SW to NW Cuba near 23N83W where it stalls to the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of America. Gust to gale-force winds are N of 29N with fresh to near gale-force N to NE winds elsewhere behind the front along with rough to very rough seas. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front to 67W, affecting a portion of the Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. Surface ridging from the Azores High prevails elsewhere across the subtropical waters, except over the central region where a broad area of low pressure is generating scattered showers and tstms from 24N to 30N between 35W and 57W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the broad low pressure is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the same region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure in the wake of the front will maintain gust to gale-force winds N of 29N between 71W and 81W through later this morning. The front will extend from 31N70W to west- central Cuba by tonight where it will weaken before dissipating into midweek. Marine conditions associated with the front will affect mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue, although seas will linger through Thu.