Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

363
AXPZ20 KNHC 190903
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Trudy is centered near 19.7N 108.0W at 19/0900
UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 18N to 22N and between 106W and 109W. A 
W motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a 
gradual turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Rapid weakening is 
expected to continue today, and Trudy is forecast to degenerate to a 
post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Swells generated by Trudy will 
continue affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-
central Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products 
from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details on Trudy.
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1025 mb high pressure system
over NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending 
downstream to 08N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
winds up to 41 kt. Seas in these waters are rough to very rough,
with a recent altimeter satellite pass estimating seas up to 17 
ft. These conditions will continue into Tue night. Winds will 
diminish below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near 
gale-force, along with rough seas, through the remainder of the 
week. Winds may reach gale-force strength again Thu night into
Fri. 
South of Southern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms
have persisted with an area of disturbed weather located several
hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form around the middle of this week as the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, well to 
the south of the coast of southern Mexico. The chance of
formation in the next 48 hours is medium and in the next 7 days
is high.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N109W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 07N123W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is present south of 16N and east of 
105W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.
Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area extends weakly into 
the offshore waters of Baja California and the Gulf of
California, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas. However, seas to 8 ft associated with Trudy extend
into the southern part of the Gulf of California and south of
Cabo San Lazaro. In the remainder of the basin, gentle to
moderate NW winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Trudy will move to 19.6N 108.4W
this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 19.6N 109.0W 
Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 19.8N 109.7W Tue 
afternoon, 20.2N 110.1W Wed morning, 20.7N 110.6W Wed afternoon, 
and dissipate Thu morning. A strong high pressure system over NE 
Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap 
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending downstream to 
08N. These conditions will continue into Tue night, along with 
rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish below gale-force by
Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force, along with rough 
seas, through the remainder of the week. Winds may increase to 
gale-force again Thu night into Fri. Looking ahead, disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of 
disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of 
Guatemala. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around
the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west- 
northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of
southern Mexico.. There is a high chance of tropical formation 
of this low over the next 7 days. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting
moderate to fresh northerly winds and rough seas to 12 ft in the
far offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas to 8 ft have expanded into
the far offshore waters of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh NE winds well downwind of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gales will diminish today, while rough seas will
persist through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and 
moderate seas will generally prevail through the week. Looking 
ahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of 
Papagayo starting midweek into late this week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 35N153W extends 
southeastward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters, 
sustaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft west of
125W and north of the ITCZ. Gap winds originating from the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec have extended southward, bringing strong winds and
rough seas to waters north of 06N and between 94W and 100W. 
Long-period southerly swell is producing rough seas along and 
south of the equator. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate
seas prevail. 
For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds will continue to
bring periods of strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N
between 92W and 103W early this week. A cold front will move S of
30N tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it N of 25N 
through Wed. A couple rounds of NW swell, both ahead of and behind
this front, will bring rough to very rough seas to waters N of 
20N from Mon night through Thu. Looking ahead, disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of disturbed
weather located several hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to 
the south of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a high chance
of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days.