Tropical Cyclone Discussion
558 WTPZ41 KNHC 190833 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 AM MST Mon Oct 19 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Trudy began rapidly weakening about 12 hours ago, and during these past 12 hours, most of the deep convection has dissipated. However, there are still small areas of deep convection in the eastern semicircle of the tropical storm. A 19/0359 UTC ASCAT-C pass had a peak wind retrieval of 45 kt, and the latest DPRINT, DMINT and AiDT estimates have fallen to the 46-55 kt range. The initial intensity was lowered to 55 kt at 06Z, with a 09Z advisory intensity of 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is westward, or 280/5 kt. A slow motion between west-southwest and west is expected over the next 12-24 h as Trudy is steered by low- to mid-level ridging to its north. On Tuesday, a deep-layer trough and associated cold front will approach the waters west of Baja California, causing Trudy to turn northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast has once again been adjusted to the south of the previous official forecast, and lies in between the previous forecast and the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. The dry environment has taken its toll on Trudy, and the mid-level air is forecast to become even drier with time over the next day or so, along with a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Trudy is expected to continue to rapidly weaken and become post-tropical within the next 24 h, although it could become post-tropical sooner than forecast. The NHC intensity forecast was lowered compared to the previous forecast due to the weaker initial intensity and latest model guidance. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Trudy's remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday night. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico and west-central Mexico through today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions at the beaches. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.7N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.6N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.6N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 19.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 20.2N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1800Z 20.7N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED