Tropical Cyclone Discussion

351
WTPZ41 KNHC 190244
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
800 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026
 
Examining the last-light visible satellite imagery of Trudy, it is 
becoming clear that the hurricane is starting to rapidly weaken. The 
coldest cloud tops within the cyclone on infrared imagery are now 
around -55 degrees C, and the convection continues to decline at a 
steady rate. This degradation in Trudy's structure is likely due to 
a combination of the southwesterly shear and some dry air intrusion 
into the core of the cyclone. Using a combination of the objective 
and subjective intensity estimates, the intensity has been lowered 
to 70 kt for this advisory.
 
A WSF-M microwave pass at 0040 UTC was very useful in locating the 
center of Trudy, which was further south and west of the Dvorak 
position, though the initial motion is still estimated towards the 
northwest or 315/6 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest or west 
along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur as Trudy 
continues to weaken. As the cyclone weakens, low- to mid-level flow 
will become the main steering for Trudy. Trudy will continue to move 
away from west-central Mexico, and then move south of Baja 
California Sur over the next day or so. The current NHC track 
forecast is farther south of the previous one, partially due to the 
adjustment in the initial position, but remains in good agreement 
with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.
 
The hurricane already appears to be rapidly weakening due to the 
influence of southwesterly shear along with a drier and more stable 
airmass. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the 
guidance envelope showing Trudy continuing to rapidly weaken over 
the next day or so, followed by more gradual weakening. The current 
forecast has Trudy becoming post-tropical in 48 h and then 
dissipating in 72 h. However, it is possible that both of these 
events could occur sooner than currently predicted.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Trudy is subsiding along the southwest 
Mexican coast in Jalisco, and the associated flood risk is expected 
to diminish as well
 
2. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern
Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days,
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 19.7N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 19.8N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 19.9N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 20.4N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/1200Z 21.1N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED