Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
521 AXNT20 KNHC 182202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is stalling this evening from the northwest coast of Cuba to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm south and 60 nm north of the boundary. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are present behind the front int the western Bay of Campeche, with fresh to strong N winds and occasional rough seas elsewhere N of the front. The front will remain generally stationary and weaken into Tue. Gales and very rough seas will prevail in the SW basin through tonight, with rough seas then continuing through Tue. Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front is moving faster in the Atlantic, and extends this evening from 31N70W through the NW Bahamas and to the northern coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 120 nm ahead of this front, and 60 nm behind the boundary. N of the cold front, near gale-force northeast to north winds and very rough seas of up to 20 ft area present, with gales occurring N of 29N between 71W and 74W. The front will gradually slow down overnight, with gales continuing into early Mon, and very rough seas expanding southeastward into Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 04N29W to 12N45W, where it is broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 11N49W to 12N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 17N between 35W and 60W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. Outside fo the gales, fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail across most of the basin. For the forecast, a cold front will slow down over the far southern Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Mon, then drift to the southeast of the basin through Tue as it weakens. Gale- force winds will persist over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through early Mon morning. High pressure behind the front, will continue to support fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection is mainly confined to the SW basin in association with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to the passage of a cold front across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean through Thu and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will remain through Wed before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean through early Wed morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on gales ongoing southwest of Bermuda behind a cold front moving through western Atlantic waters. To the east of this cold front, a surface trough extending along 51W N of 22N is inducing scattered moderate convection N of 22N between 48W and 55W. Another stronger trough from 31N45W southeastward to 22N40W is producing an area of numerous strong convection N of 24N between 41W and 47W. Finally, deeper in the tropics, a third surface trough that is drapped from 08N51W to 15N43W is leading to a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 08N to 15N between 40W and 50W. Locally fresh or higher winds, with rough seas, are present in and near convection close to each of these troughs, but for waters away from these features, winds are generally moderate or less, with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall before dissipating into midweek. Marine conditions associated with the front will affect mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue, although seas will linger through much of the week.