Tropical Cyclone Discussion
325 WTPZ41 KNHC 182042 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Trudy this afternoon found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 95 kt in the northeast eyewall, with a dropsonde in that area suggesting surface winds of about 85 kt. The minimum central pressure was near 974 mb. Thus, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. During the last hour or so, the hurricane's cloud pattern has started to lose organization, and this is likely a sign of the forecast increasing shear and the upcoming weakening trend. The initial motion northwestward at a slower forward speed or 325/5 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest at an even slower forward speed is forecast as Trudy shears apart vertically and becomes steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the hurricane will move away from southwest and west-central Mexico this afternoon and then move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Trudy is starting to encounter increasing southwesterly shear and a drier and more stable airmass. The dynamical intensity guidance forecasts this combination to cause rapid weakening starting near the 12 h point at the latest, and the intensity forecast follows the trend of this guidance. The new forecast follows the previous forecast in showing Trudy degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone by 60 hours and dissipating in 3 or 4 days. Both of these could occur sooner than currently predicted. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although tropical storm conditions are moving away from the Mexican coast, gusts to tropical storm-force are possible this afternoon and evening over portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the Islas Marias. 2. Coastal flooding due to storm surge should subside this afternoon and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue to impact the southwest Mexican coast in Jalisco through tonight. This rainfall may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. 4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.5N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.9N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.1N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 21.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 21.9N 110.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED