Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
877 AXNT20 KNHC 181711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Straits across the S Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and just ahead of the front, with gusty and erratic winds and seas occurring in areas of thunderstorms. Strong to gale-force N to NE winds and very rough seas up to 20 ft follow the front, highest seas over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force will continue over the NE Gulf through this afternoon. The front will slowly drift southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist over the SW Gulf through tonight. Very rough seas up to 20 ft will persist in the Bay of Campeche through this afternoon, with rough seas prevailing across central and southern portions of the basin through Tue. Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front mentioned above currently extends from 31N72W to the Florida Straits as it moves SE across the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and just ahead of the front, with gusty and erratic winds and seas occurring in areas of thunderstorms. North winds of 25 to 30 kt are behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale-force. Very rough seas behind the front have built to near 20 ft, with rough seas occurring along the FL coast and N of Grand Bahama. The front will continue drifting southeastward, reaching from near 31N70W to western Cuba by Monday evening, and then will stall and dissipate through midweek. Gale-force gusts are expected to continue across the waters between 70-75W and N of 30N through Monday morning. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft in N to NE swell will expand across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through Monday morning as well, with rough seas expanding across all of the waters N of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos through Tuesday morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from near 06N17W to 04N29W to 11N45W, where it is broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 11N49W to 11N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 17N between 35W and 60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring along the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warnings and hazardous marine conditions across much of the Gulf. Outside of the areas of gale-force winds, rough to very rough seas, and convection, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail in the NW Gulf, as well as the far SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, strong high pressure building over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the front, will continue to support fresh NE to E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid- week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is interacting with abundant moisture and the East Pacific monsoon trough in the far SW Caribbean, supporting scattered moderate convection S of 17N and W of 75W. Outside of convection, moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weaker pressure gradient across the region due to the passage of a cold front across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean through Thu and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will stall before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba adjacent waters through early Wed morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning and hazardous marine conditions for waters offshore Florida and the Bahamas. Multiple surface troughs in the central Atlantic are supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N between 40W and 55W. Recent scatterometer data confirm fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas to the N of a surface trough, generally from 23N to 30N between 35W and 45W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas are also ongoing N of 20N and E of 30W. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas. A low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary N of area later this morning bringing gale-force winds N of 30N between 70W and 75W through tonight. The front will reach from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by early Mon morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon night where it will stall before dissipating into midweek. Marine conditions associated with the front will affect mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue, although seas will linger through much of the week.