Tropical Cyclone Discussion
196 WTPZ41 KNHC 180833 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 Trudy has strengthened a little more tonight. Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and deep convection is better organized, especially on the west side of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates have increased slightly, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 90 kt, in agreement with the TAFB Dvorak classification. The outer rainbands are affecting portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, likely producing heavy rains and strong winds. These conditions will likely persist for several more hours. A partial ASCAT-B pass that caught the east side of the circulation suggests that the hurricane has a slightly smaller wind field than previously estimated, and the initial wind radii have been adjusted based on that information. Trudy has been moving northwestward at about 9 kt over the past 12 hours. This motion is expected to continue today, but a significant slowdown is forecast after that as the system weakens and is steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left toward the latest EMXI, GDMI, and HCCA models. On the expected track, the hurricane will begin pulling away from southwest and west-central Mexico tonight and then move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. The hurricane could strengthen a little more this morning, but a notable increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry and stable air should cause Trudy to begin weakening later today. Given the expected hostile atmospheric conditions, the weakening is expected to be rapid, and Trudy is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 or 4 days. In fact, it would not be surprising if both of these occurred sooner than predicted. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are likely within the hurricane warning area today. 2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue across the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit today. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next few days, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.6N 106.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.5N 106.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 20.2N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 20.4N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 21.6N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED