Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
682 WTPZ31 KNHC 180242 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 PM CST Sat Oct 17 2026 ...TRUDY CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 105.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo * The coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Trudy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 105.7 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy is approaching the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and will pass near the coast tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Sunday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the mainland Mexico portion of the Tropical Storm Warning area later tonight, and in the Islas Marias on Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero and Nayarit. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.