Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
786 AXPZ20 KNHC 172123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 17.5N 105.0W at 17/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. A general NW motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will pass near the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico tonight into Sunday. Some strengthening remains possible this evening, followed by weakening beginning by Sunday. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southward through Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehunatepec, where very rough seas have built. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm-force, with seas as high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W and from 12N102W to 05N128W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N E of 95W and from 01N to 08N between 105W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh winds are present in the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 2-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy is near 17.5N 105.0W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Trudy will move to 18.6N 105.6W Sun morning, 19.8N 106.4W Sun afternoon, and 20.7N 107.1W Mon morning. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 107.6W Mon afternoon, be near 21.2N 108.1W Tue morning, and 21.5N 108.7W Tue afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a remnant low just south of Baja California Sur Wed afternoon. Strong high pressure building southward through Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehunatepec, where very rough seas have built. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm-force, with seas as high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gale-force gap winds NW of the region in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are filtering southward, leading to fresh N winds well offshore Guatemala, and seas are building to 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying long-period SW swell are also pressure S of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and mainly 3 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a powerful early-season gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will send strong N winds and very rough seas to waters offshore Guatemala into Sun night, with rough seas then continuing through Tue. Large SW swell will gradually decay south of the equator into tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the monsoon trough and high pressure in the north Pacific is leading to a broad area of moderate to locally fresh trades N of 06N and W of 120W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found S of the monsoon trough, S of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, little change in winds is expected through early next week. Large SW swell near the Equator will decay tonight. A weak cold front will move S of 30N by early Tue, bringing fresh to locally strong N winds Tue into Wed N of 28N, with rough to very rough seas N of 20N Tue into Thu.