Tropical Cyclone Discussion
983 WTPZ41 KNHC 172054 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Sat Oct 17 2026 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported that Trudy has a 38 n mi wide eye open to the southwest. The maximum 700-mb flight level winds were 95 kt in the northwest eyewall, and the minimum central pressure is near 976 mb. Based on these data the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. The aircraft also reported that the center was a bit west of where satellite imagery suggests it is, possibly due to a tilted vortex, and the initial position has been nudged westward. The hurricane continues moving northwestward or 320-325 degrees/9 kt. A continued northwestward to possibly north-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24-36 h as a weak low- to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion would bring the center of Trudy very close to the coast of west-central Mexico tonight and Sunday. Thereafter, as Trudy weakens and becomes steered mainly by low-level flow, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected, taking the cyclone away from the coast. The new track forecast is adjusted westward based on the more westward initial position. Conditions appear conducive for a little more strengthening through tonight, although moderate wind shear will likely limit how much strengthening can occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 12 h. After about 18 h, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level moisture near the cyclone are likely to cause steady to rapid weakening even when the center would be moving away from the coast of Mexico. This part of the intensity forecast had been nudged downward to better match the pace of the weakening in the guidance. Current expectations are that the system will stop producing convection between 72-96 h and decay to a remnant low pressure, and the global models forecast the circulation to weaken to a trough by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to strengthen as it moves near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico tonight and Sunday. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely within the hurricane warning area. 2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 4. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.5N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 18.6N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 19.8N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 21.0N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 21.2N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 21.5N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 22.2N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED