Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
964 WTPZ31 KNHC 172053 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Sat Oct 17 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT TRUDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 105.0W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Las Islas Marias. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico south of Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas * The coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Trudy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 105.0 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this afternoon and pass near the coast tonight and Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Weakening is expected to begin late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by tonight, with tropical storm conditions spreading across the area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the mainland Mexico portion of the Tropical Storm Warning area this afternoon and tonight, and in the Islas Marias on Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. RAINFALL: Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inch totals with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero and Nayarit. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.