Tropical Cyclone Discussion
392 WTPZ41 KNHC 171438 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 AM CST Sat Oct 17 2026 Trudy is slowly becoming better organized. The hurricane is producing a large central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C, and curved bands of overshooting tops in the CDO indicate an eyewall is present underneath it. The various satellite intensity estimates are starting to increase, but not enough yet to support raising the intensity. Thus, the initial intensity remains 80 kt. The hurricane is moving a little faster toward the northwest, 325/9 kt. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as a weak low- to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This general motion should continue for the next 36 h or so, bringing the center of Trudy very close to the coast of west-central Mexico. Thereafter, as Trudy weakens and becomes steered mainly by low-level flow, a turn toward the west and west-northwest is expected, taking the cyclone away from the coast. The new track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast, with the center making its closest approach to the coast of Mexico around 36-48 h. Now that Trudy is over water with a higher oceanic heat content, some strengthening is possible. However, moderate vertical shear, dry air entrainment, and increasing land interaction could limit how much strengthening may occur. After 24 h or so, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level moisture near the cyclone are likely to cause steady to rapid weakening even when the center would be moving away from the coast of Mexico. Current expectations are that the system will stop producing convection between 72-96 h and decay to a remnant low pressure, and the global models forecast the circulation to weaken to a trough by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has some tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy could strengthen some during the next 12 hours or so as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, as well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings may be required. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides this weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.6N 103.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.7N 104.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 19.1N 105.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 20.1N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 20.7N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 20.9N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 20.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.7N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED