Tropical Cyclone Discussion
474 WTPZ41 KNHC 170240 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 Trudy's satellite presentation has improved somewhat this evening, with deep convection becoming better organized near the center and a possible ragged eye beginning to reappear. Cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees C have been observed within the convective band wrapping into the system over the northern semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while recent objective estimates have been as high as 75 kt. Given the recent improvement in the satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt. The initial motion is northward, or about 350/6 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest at a faster forward speed is expected overnight and into Saturday as a weak low- to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This general motion should continue through Sunday, bringing the center of Trudy very close to portions of the coast of west-central Mexico. Thereafter, as Trudy weakens and becomes increasingly influenced by the low-level steering flow, a turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated, taking the cyclone away from the coast early next week. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous prediction, toward the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN consensus aids, but remains on the right side of the track guidance envelope, closer to the coast of Mexico. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 h as Trudy moves over warmer waters with increasing ocean heat content, away from the relatively cool wakes of previous tropical cyclones. However, possible dry-air entrainment and the cyclone's increasing proximity to the coast of Mexico could limit strengthening. Beyond 36 to 48 h, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and a progressively drier mid-level environment should induce steady weakening. These increasingly hostile conditions are expected to cause Trudy to lose its organized deep convection, with the cyclone forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, but has been nudged slightly higher between 12 and 24 h to account for the recent improvement in Trudy's satellite presentation and the increasingly favorable oceanic conditions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to strengthen during the next 24 hours as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, as well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings may be required. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.2N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.3N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.7N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.0N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 20.0N 106.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 20.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 20.9N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 21.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED