Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

411
WTPZ21 KNHC 170236
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212026
0300 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 103.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 104.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.0N 106.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.9N 107.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 108.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 17/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z