Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
266 AXPZ20 KNHC 162119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 14.8N 102.5W at 16/2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Max seas are around 32 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong conveciton is occurring from 22N-27N between 98W-104W. A northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Slight strengthening is possible Saturday and Saturday night. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. The remnants of Simon are centered near 21.5N 110.3W at 16/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 7 ft. No deep convection remains in association with Simon. Swells generated by the remnants of Simon could affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Simon and Trudy. Gale Warning: A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has started this afternoon. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale- force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Peak winds should be around 45 kt Sat afternoon with largest seas near 15 ft from at afternoon through Sun night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N86W to 09N95W. It begins again near 10N101W and extends to 00N130W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 00N-09N east of 94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-07N between 105W-121W and from 04S-02N between 129W-138W.. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and the Remnants of Simon, as well as the Gale Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of the areas described in the Special Features section, fresh N winds have begun along the coast over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 2-5 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 15.5N 103.1W Sat morning, 16.9N 104.1W Sat afternoon, 18.5N 105.1W Sun morning approaching Cabo Corrientes, 19.7N 105.9W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 106.6W Mon morning, and 20.9N 107.1W Mon afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a tropical depression over 21.5N 108.1W Tue afternoon over the entrance to the Gulf of California. In addition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has started this afternoon. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Finally looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. Formation chance is near zero through 48 hours, and medium through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters this morning. Seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 00N-09N east of 94W. For the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind event will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W portion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone Sat night and Sun. Large to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the Tehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also impact this zone from Sat night through Tue night. Large SW swell is impacting the equatorial zones now through Sat night. Finally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the offshore waters from Guatemala through Colombia over at least the next two days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high at 36N136W to lower pressure over the monsoon trough is causing only moderate to locally fresh trades. South of 05N between 95W-125W is experiencing seas 8-9 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, little change in winds are expected during the next few days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will gradually diminishing by Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front should reach our northern border on Tue. While winds should only be moderate or fresh behind the front, large NW swell will accompany the front through mid-week.