Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
309 AXNT20 KNHC 161712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 09N34W where it is broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 06N44W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N and E of 23W, as well as from 04N to 10N between 25W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate convection offshore Veracruz. Outside of convection, a cold front emerging off the TX coast is leading to fresh to strong N winds occurring over the nearshore waters between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Seas of 2-5 ft currently prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will enter the far northwest Gulf later this morning, reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then stall and dissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche through the early part of next week. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the west- central Gulf tonight, and the southwest Gulf by Sat morning, and persist through Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N47W to 29N50W, and then is stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N35W to 20N39W with a 1008 mb low along the trough near 22N37W. These features are also driving fresh to strong SE winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. Diffluence aloft and east of this trough supports numerous showers and thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas will shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front.