Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161134 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 600 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 ...MAJOR HURRICANE TRUDY CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... ...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 102.5W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 102.5 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is forecast during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Trudy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. strengthening is expected through Saturday, and Trudy is forecast to remain a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico. Some weakening is predicted later this weekend and into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by late Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest coast of Mexico in Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico in Guerrero. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.