Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
617 AXPZ20 KNHC 161008 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 14.2N 102.4W at 16/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are estimated around 30 ft. A partial altimeter satellite pass captured seas near 26 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 12N to 17N and between 100W and 105W. A north- northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is forecast during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday, and Trudy is forecast to remain a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico. Some weakening is predicted later this weekend and into early next week. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 20.0N 108.8W at 16/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 9 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 22N and between 107W and 111W. A general NW motion is expected to prevail through the weekend. Continued weakening is expected, and Simon is forecast to become a post- tropical remnant low in a day or so. Swells generated by Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Simon and Trudy. Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the Gulf of America later today and continue eastward over the next couple of days. A strong high pressure system will follow the front. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics will result in fresh to strong northerly winds developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Winds will increase to gale- force Sat and continue until late Mon or early Tue. Seas will build to very rough during this period, peaking around 15 ft late Sun into Mon. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail afterwards until at least late next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W and to 10N97W, then resumes from near 08N102W to 02N119W. The ITCZ extends from 02N119W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 14N and east of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 11N and between 97W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and Tropical Storm Simon. Also, on the Gale Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec for this weekend. Outside of the areas described in the Special Features section, a recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NW winds in the central and northern Gulf of California. This is due to a moderate pressure gradient between a strong ridge located north of the area and lower pressures in NW Mexico. The satellite-derived wind data also showed moderate to fresh northerly winds in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, especially around Punta Eugenia. Seas in the areas described are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 14.8N 102.7W this afternoon, 15.9N 103.4W Sat morning, 17.4N 104.4W Sat afternoon, 19.0N 105.5W Sun morning, 20.3N 106.3W Sun afternoon, and 21.0N 107.0W Mon morning. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm over 21.4N 108.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Simon will weaken to a tropical depression near 20.7N 109.7W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 21.8N 111.7W Sat morning, 23.1N 113.6W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support fresh to strong N winds and rough seas tonight. Winds will reach gale force and seas build to very rough starting Sat and continuing through late Mon or early Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail afterwards until at least late next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. The chance of formation over the next 7 days is medium. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally strong southerly winds are occurring in the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. A cross-equatorial southerly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas will continue between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the next several days. Gap winds will reach gale- force strength in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend due to a tight pressure gradient. Winds will reach strong force and seas build to rough in the far offshore waters of Guatemala starting Sat night. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh on Sun, but rough to very rough seas will continue until at least midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system near 35N133W extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters, sustaining moderate to locally fresh winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. For the forecast, a cross-equatorial swell will support rough seas south of 10N during the next several days. Mainly moderate winds and rough seas will persist over the central and western waters during the next few days. Looking ahead, NW swell will reach the NW waters tonight and spread southeastward over the northern waters during the weekend. Then, a strong cold front will bring fresh northerly winds and rough to very rough seas to the northern waters by midweek.