Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
240 AXNT20 KNHC 160955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 1010 mb low pressure near 6.5N37W, then continues to 05N52W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active from 06N to 12N between 13W and 20W, from 04N to 07N between 25W and 30W, and from 05N to 09N between 35W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level short-wave trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a surface trough off the coast of Veracruz. 1018 mb high pressure over Alabama is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will enter the far northwest Gulf today, reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then stall and dissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche through the early part of next week. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the west- central Gulf by early Sat and the southwest Gulf by Sat evening, and persist through Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level diffluence over Yucatan and the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, highest in the south-central basin, and rough offshore Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N45W to 25N57W, and then is stationary to 25N70W. Fresh SW winds, 8-9 ft combined seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front east of 50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near a surface trough along 52W from 13N to 20N, and within 240 nm east of a 1008 mb low pressure area near 23N37W. Moderate to fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted within 90 nm of the low pressure. Elsewhere, generally moderate winds and seas are evident across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas will shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat. The front will reach from 31N74W to Florida Straits by early Sun, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front, with gale force winds possible north of 28N and west of 75W Sun night.